This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2021 | Current | 171 | 7.97 | 5.69 | 2.91 | ||
Estimated | 200 | 7.80 | 5.73 | 2.58 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
Description |
The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944 is the latest in Ted S. Raicer's WWII operational series that began with The Dark Valley: The East Front Campaign 1941-45. The game uses a chit-pull activation system that determines both the order and type of each sides' actions during the game's ten action-packed turns, covering June 6 to August 21, 1944. The availability of Action Round chits (for the Germans, and separately for the British and US forces) is itself determined by the draw of Weather chits, one per turn, which reflect the importance of weather on the effectiveness of Allied air superiority and Allied shipping across the Channel. Weather also determines the number of German Reaction markers, which allow limited response to Allied actions. The "Dark" chit pull system makes The Dark Summer an excellent game for solo play, while keeping both players involved in face-to-face play. |
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2021 | GMT Games | Ted Raicer | Wargame | Country: France | Chit-Pull System | |||
World War II | Players: Two Player Only Games | Dice Rolling | ||||||
Players: Two Players Only Wargames | ||||||||
Region: Normandy (France) | ||||||||
Series: Dark Valley WWII (GMT) | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/249582
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
What games are similar to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 1.00 | 5.69 | 7.97 | 2.58 | 171 | ||
1 | 2012 | 0.99 | 5.63 | 7.36 | 2.89 | 151 | ||
2 | 2010 | 0.97 | 5.63 | 7.27 | 2.09 | 143 | ||
3 | 2018 | Across The Narva: The Soviet Assault on Estonia, February 1944 | 0.97 | 5.58 | 7.74 | 2.67 | 78 | |
4 | 1999 | 0.97 | 5.57 | 6.68 | 3.29 | 111 | ||
5 | 1980 | 0.96 | 5.65 | 7.38 | 3.33 | 184 | ||
6 | 2013 | 0.96 | 5.60 | 7.51 | 2.47 | 94 | ||
7 | 2006 | 0.96 | 5.52 | 6.57 | 3.22 | 34 | ||
8 | 2011 | 0.96 | 5.74 | 8.38 | 3.48 | 180 | ||
9 | 2017 | 0.95 | 5.64 | 8.08 | 3.88 | 122 | ||
10 | 2017 | 0.95 | 5.55 | 7.68 | 2.29 | 45 | ||
11 | 2014 | 0.95 | 5.57 | 8.23 | 3.00 | 47 | ||
12 | 1995 | 0.94 | 5.52 | 5.94 | 2.72 | 88 | ||
13 | 2013 | 0.94 | 5.56 | 7.60 | 2.83 | 69 | ||
14 | 2009 | PanzerBlitz: Hill of Death – The Battle for Hill 112, Normandy 1944 | 0.94 | 5.59 | 6.69 | 2.88 | 173 | |
15 | 2013 | 0.94 | 5.57 | 7.52 | 2.50 | 81 | ||
16 | 2008 | 0.94 | 5.53 | 6.37 | 1.56 | 60 | ||
17 | 2008 | 0.94 | 5.84 | 7.59 | 2.75 | 385 | ||
18 | 2006 | 0.94 | 5.53 | 6.77 | 3.30 | 51 | ||
19 | 2006 | 0.94 | 5.53 | 5.92 | 1.54 | 151 | ||
20 | 2010 | 0.94 | 5.66 | 8.00 | 2.81 | 132 | ||
21 | 2016 | 0.93 | 5.65 | 8.22 | 3.33 | 128 | ||
22 | 2001 | 0.93 | 5.51 | 6.00 | 2.73 | 65 | ||
23 | 2007 | 0.93 | 5.70 | 7.49 | 3.30 | 222 | ||
24 | 2007 | 0.93 | 5.53 | 6.71 | 2.91 | 56 | ||
25 | 2009 | 0.93 | 5.59 | 7.32 | 1.68 | 87 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
What games are similar to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944 while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 5.69 | 1.00 | 5.69 | 7.97 | 2.58 | 171 | ||
1 | 2012 | 5.61 | 0.99 | 5.63 | 7.36 | 2.89 | 151 | ||
2 | 2011 | 5.48 | 0.96 | 5.74 | 8.38 | 3.48 | 180 | ||
3 | 2008 | 5.47 | 0.94 | 5.84 | 7.59 | 2.75 | 385 | ||
4 | 2010 | 5.47 | 0.97 | 5.63 | 7.27 | 2.09 | 143 | ||
5 | 1980 | 5.45 | 0.96 | 5.65 | 7.38 | 3.33 | 184 | ||
6 | 2018 | Across The Narva: The Soviet Assault on Estonia, February 1944 | 5.42 | 0.97 | 5.58 | 7.74 | 2.67 | 78 | |
7 | 2017 | 5.38 | 0.95 | 5.64 | 8.08 | 3.88 | 122 | ||
8 | 1999 | 5.37 | 0.97 | 5.57 | 6.68 | 3.29 | 111 | ||
9 | 2013 | 5.37 | 0.96 | 5.60 | 7.51 | 2.47 | 94 | ||
10 | 2013 | 5.36 | 0.91 | 5.89 | 8.63 | 3.65 | 271 | ||
11 | 2005 | 5.32 | 0.92 | 5.77 | 7.43 | 3.99 | 310 | ||
12 | 2007 | 5.31 | 0.93 | 5.70 | 7.49 | 3.30 | 222 | ||
13 | 2010 | 5.29 | 0.94 | 5.66 | 8.00 | 2.81 | 132 | ||
14 | 2017 | 5.28 | 0.95 | 5.55 | 7.68 | 2.29 | 45 | ||
15 | 2013 | 5.28 | 0.89 | 5.94 | 7.99 | 3.32 | 446 | ||
16 | 2016 | 5.28 | 0.93 | 5.65 | 8.22 | 3.33 | 128 | ||
17 | 2006 | 5.28 | 0.96 | 5.52 | 6.57 | 3.22 | 34 | ||
18 | 2018 | 5.27 | 0.90 | 5.83 | 8.84 | 3.68 | 211 | ||
19 | 2014 | 5.27 | 0.95 | 5.57 | 8.23 | 3.00 | 47 | ||
20 | 2009 | PanzerBlitz: Hill of Death – The Battle for Hill 112, Normandy 1944 | 5.26 | 0.94 | 5.59 | 6.69 | 2.88 | 173 | |
21 | 2013 | 5.24 | 0.94 | 5.56 | 7.60 | 2.83 | 69 | ||
22 | 2013 | 5.23 | 0.94 | 5.57 | 7.52 | 2.50 | 81 | ||
23 | 2001 | 5.21 | 0.89 | 5.86 | 7.30 | 3.06 | 482 | ||
24 | 2003 | 5.21 | 0.92 | 5.67 | 6.93 | 3.77 | 249 | ||
25 | 1995 | 5.20 | 0.94 | 5.52 | 5.94 | 2.72 | 88 |
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.