1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	249582	The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944	Current	171	7.97	5.69	2.91
			Estimated	200	7.80	5.73	2.58

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944 is the latest in Ted S. Raicer's WWII operational series that began with The Dark Valley: The East Front Campaign 1941-45. The game uses a chit-pull activation system that determines both the order and type of each sides' actions during the game's ten action-packed turns, covering June 6 to August 21, 1944. The availability of Action Round chits (for the Germans, and separately for the British and US forces) is itself determined by the draw of Weather chits, one per turn, which reflect the importance of weather on the effectiveness of Allied air superiority and Allied shipping across the Channel. Weather also determines the number of German Reaction markers, which allow limited response to Allied actions. The "Dark" chit pull system makes The Dark Summer an excellent game for solo play, while keeping both players involved in face-to-face play. The single map extends from just south of Cherbourg (itself covered by a Cherbourg Box) southwest to Avranches and southeast to Alencon, allowing players to recreate the entire campaign from D-Day to the closing of the Falaise gap in late August. Units are mostly regiment/brigades, with a few battalions, but German mechanized forces are presented as operational kampfgruppen. Victory is determined by the Allies capturing Cherbourg, exiting units to Brittany and Paris, and preventing the exiting of German units, but the Allies win a sudden death victory if they capture all the cities on the map before Turn 10 and the Germans win a sudden death victory by closing down any three Allied Beaches, two of which must be contiguous. The unknown activation sequence means the Allies cannot take the safety of his landing beaches for granted in June! The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944 is a game of moderate complexity, but nevertheless covers all the most important elements of the campaign. There are rules for the D-Day Landings, untried German strong-points and Ost battalions, Allied tac-air and carpet bombing, Allied artillery superiority, German nebelwerfer and flak guns, Allied naval support, the conquest of Cherbourg, exiting and re-entering the map, and variable entry and possible delay of both side's reinforcements. A game on an epic campaign that is playable in a single day's gaming and with a small footprint that will allow it to be left set-up for solo study, The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944 is a must-have for fans of WWII operational games, the "Dark" system, or students of the campaign for northwest Europe. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/249582

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	249582	The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944	1.00	5.69	7.97	2.58	171
1	2012	36297	No Question of Surrender: The Battle for Bir Hacheim	0.99	5.63	7.36	2.89	151
2	2010	38471	Corps Command: Dawn's Early Light	0.97	5.63	7.27	2.09	143
3	2018	260465	Across The Narva: The Soviet Assault on Estonia, February 1944	0.97	5.58	7.74	2.67	78
4	1999	8843	June 6	0.97	5.57	6.68	3.29	111
5	1980	8887	Battle for Stalingrad	0.96	5.65	7.38	3.33	184
6	2013	137626	The Road to Cheren	0.96	5.60	7.51	2.47	94
7	2006	20710	Tiger of Malaya	0.96	5.52	6.57	3.22	34
8	2011	36314	Where Eagles Dare: The Battle for Hell's Highway	0.96	5.74	8.38	3.48	180
9	2017	194078	Operation Mercury: The Invasion of Crete	0.95	5.64	8.08	3.88	122
10	2017	244026	La Guerra di Gradisca 1615-1617	0.95	5.55	7.68	2.29	45
11	2014	167580	Montmirail and Vauchamps 1814	0.95	5.57	8.23	3.00	47
12	1995	7847	Blood on the Snow: The Battle of Suomussalmi	0.94	5.52	5.94	2.72	88
13	2013	106978	World at War: America Conquered	0.94	5.56	7.60	2.83	69
14	2009	26745	PanzerBlitz: Hill of Death – The Battle for Hill 112, Normandy 1944	0.94	5.59	6.69	2.88	173
15	2013	86458	Nations at War: Desert Heat	0.94	5.57	7.52	2.50	81
16	2008	37724	Paul Koenig's D-Day: The Canadian Beach	0.94	5.53	6.37	1.56	60
17	2008	35035	World at War: Blood and Bridges	0.94	5.84	7.59	2.75	385
18	2006	23614	Imperial Sunset: The Battle of Leyte Gulf 1944	0.94	5.53	6.77	3.30	51
19	2006	23957	Stand at Mortain	0.94	5.53	5.92	1.54	151
20	2010	41934	World at War: The Untold Stories	0.94	5.66	8.00	2.81	132
21	2016	207230	Thunder in the Ozarks: Battle for Pea Ridge, March 1862	0.93	5.65	8.22	3.33	128
22	2001	8132	Winter Fury: The Battle of Tolvajärvi 1939	0.93	5.51	6.00	2.73	65
23	2007	27968	Red Star Rising: The War in Russia, 1941-1944	0.93	5.70	7.49	3.30	222
24	2007	31067	Luftwaffe: Aerial Combat – Germany 1943-45	0.93	5.53	6.71	2.91	56
25	2009	54300	Bravery in the Sand	0.93	5.59	7.32	1.68	87

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944 while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	249582	The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944	5.69	1.00	5.69	7.97	2.58	171
1	2012	36297	No Question of Surrender: The Battle for Bir Hacheim	5.61	0.99	5.63	7.36	2.89	151
2	2011	36314	Where Eagles Dare: The Battle for Hell's Highway	5.48	0.96	5.74	8.38	3.48	180
3	2008	35035	World at War: Blood and Bridges	5.47	0.94	5.84	7.59	2.75	385
4	2010	38471	Corps Command: Dawn's Early Light	5.47	0.97	5.63	7.27	2.09	143
5	1980	8887	Battle for Stalingrad	5.45	0.96	5.65	7.38	3.33	184
6	2018	260465	Across The Narva: The Soviet Assault on Estonia, February 1944	5.42	0.97	5.58	7.74	2.67	78
7	2017	194078	Operation Mercury: The Invasion of Crete	5.38	0.95	5.64	8.08	3.88	122
8	1999	8843	June 6	5.37	0.97	5.57	6.68	3.29	111
9	2013	137626	The Road to Cheren	5.37	0.96	5.60	7.51	2.47	94
10	2013	99358	Stonewall Jackson's Way II: Battles of Bull Run	5.36	0.91	5.89	8.63	3.65	271
11	2005	13855	Carthage: The First Punic War	5.32	0.92	5.77	7.43	3.99	310
12	2007	27968	Red Star Rising: The War in Russia, 1941-1944	5.31	0.93	5.70	7.49	3.30	222
13	2010	41934	World at War: The Untold Stories	5.29	0.94	5.66	8.00	2.81	132
14	2017	244026	La Guerra di Gradisca 1615-1617	5.28	0.95	5.55	7.68	2.29	45
15	2013	66855	The Dark Valley	5.28	0.89	5.94	7.99	3.32	446
16	2016	207230	Thunder in the Ozarks: Battle for Pea Ridge, March 1862	5.28	0.93	5.65	8.22	3.33	128
17	2006	20710	Tiger of Malaya	5.28	0.96	5.52	6.57	3.22	34
18	2018	215565	Roads to Gettysburg II: Lee Strikes North	5.27	0.90	5.83	8.84	3.68	211
19	2014	167580	Montmirail and Vauchamps 1814	5.27	0.95	5.57	8.23	3.00	47
20	2009	26745	PanzerBlitz: Hill of Death – The Battle for Hill 112, Normandy 1944	5.26	0.94	5.59	6.69	2.88	173
21	2013	106978	World at War: America Conquered	5.24	0.94	5.56	7.60	2.83	69
22	2013	86458	Nations at War: Desert Heat	5.23	0.94	5.57	7.52	2.50	81
23	2001	2998	Reds! The Russian Civil War 1918-1921	5.21	0.89	5.86	7.30	3.06	482
24	2003	6202	The Rise of the Roman Republic	5.21	0.92	5.67	6.93	3.77	249
25	1995	7847	Blood on the Snow: The Battle of Suomussalmi	5.20	0.94	5.52	5.94	2.72	88

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	249582	The Dark Summer: Normandy 1944	GMT Games	Ted Raicer		Wargame	Country: France	Chit-Pull System
						World War II	Players: Two Player Only Games	Dice Rolling
							Players: Two Players Only Wargames
							Region: Normandy (France)
							Series: Dark Valley WWII (GMT)

Individual Game Analysis